Higher costs put pressure on land values
The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on C$27.6 billion of Canadian goods on August 22. Canada’s 15%, 25% and 50% counter-tariffs on an equivalent value of imports followed September 8, affecting construction-related products. Ottawa also announced C$7.5 billion in support. Tariff details · Support package
When construction and financing costs rise faster than selling prices, developers have less room to pay for land.
Mortgage pressure continues
As of January 2026, OSFI identified 3.1 million mortgages (52%) at federally regulated lenders renewing by the end of 2027, including 1.3 million first renewals of fixed-rate or fixed-payment variable mortgages originated in 2021–2022.
The Bank of Canada projects an average 15% payment increase for remaining pandemic-era five-year, fixed-payment mortgages renewing within 12 months of its 2026 report—a group representing 12% of outstanding mortgages.
On a $3,000 monthly payment, that means $450 more monthly, or $5,400 annually. Individual outcomes vary.
Arrears remain low but have risen locally, as the graph shows. These are Q4 2025 mortgages 90+ days overdue, not foreclosure counts. Court-ordered sales can reflect financial pressure from months earlier. CMHC
The market at a glance
- BCREA’s 2026 forecast: 69,325 residential sales; $941,800 average price—both down 1.2%. Source
- Fraser Valley, August 2026: 941 sales—down 14% monthly, up 1% annually. Source
These housing figures do not directly measure development-land values.
Varing’s view
Most homeowners continue meeting their obligations. For development land, realistic pricing, manageable costs and existing approvals matter more than ever. Early conversations between owners, lenders and advisors can help preserve options and value.
Policy rate source: Bank of Canada, September 2, 2026.